Erik Moberg ã:
A Theory of Democratic Politics
27 - SUMMARY
In this summary I will present the main hypotheses derived
in the discussion above. First there are some hypoteses about the nature
of the main actors, and about their interaction.
Parliamentary, proportional | Parliamentary, majoritarian | Presidential, proportional | Presidential, majoritarian | |
Type of main actors? | Only party main actors. | Party main actors dominate. | Both party main actors and individual main actors. The president is an important individual main actor. | Only individual main actors. The president is a particularly important main actor. |
Number of main actors? | Around five to ten. | Very few, perhaps only two. | Possibly around hundred. | A few hundred. |
Are political careers party careers? | Yes | Yes | Yes for the legislators, but not necessarily for the president. | Not necessarily for anyone. |
Are the voting patterns stable? | Yes, possibly over the whole election period. | Yes, possibly over the whole election period, and disregarding some individual main actors. | No, they may change from decision to decision. | No, they may change from decision to decision. |
Does the voting follow party lines? | Yes | Yes, disregarding some individual main actors. | No, not necessarily, although party voting may sometimes be important. | No |
Are the winning coalitions usually minimal? | Yes | Yes | No, not necessarily. | No |
Is it easier to form a blocking constellation than a decisive one? | Only if there are two houses in the legislature. | Only if there are two houses in the legislature. | Yes, and in particular if there are two houses in the legislature. | Yes, and in particular if there are two houses in the legislature. |
Are the main actors mainly working for special interests, or mainly for general interests? | Mainly for special interests. | Could be both. Individual main actors may however work for regional special interets. | The president may be working for general interests. The main actors in the legislature are likely to work for special interests. | The president may be working for general interests, and so may some of the legislators. Legislators may however also work for regional special interets. |
Is there any main actor representing more than partisan interests? | No | Possibly | Possibly the president. | Possibly the president and possibly some legislators. |
Is an organized opposition likely to form? | No | Yes | No | No |
Is the political process continous or a batch process? | Essentially a batch process - most policy decisions are taken when the coalition executive is formed. | Could be both. | A continous process. | A continous process. |
Is blocking for its own sake - that is blackmail - likely to take place? | Yes, possibly by small ideologically free parties in the coalition formation process. | Hardly, but possibly by individual main actors sometimes. | Yes, very likely. | No |
Then there are some hypotheses about the relations between
the main actors and the voters.
Parliamentary, proportional | Parliamentary, majoritarian | Presidential, proportional | Presidential, majoritarian | |
What kind of relation will the main actors have to the voters? | Instruction - the instructions may to a large extent be specific. | Instruction - the instructions may to a large extent be general. | To some extent delegation - in particular regarding the president - bot also instruction. | Delegation will dominate. |
Is the electorate likely to be segmented so that the main actors can identify their friends and enemies? | Yes, to a large extent. | Yes, to a large extent. | Possibly | Only to a very limited extent. |
Finally, there are a number of hypotheses about lobbying.
Parliamentary, proportional | Parliamentary, majoritarian | Presidential, proportional | Presidential, majoritarian | |
Is the lobbying process concentrated or dispersed? | It is very concentrated. The leaderships of the party main actors are the main targets. It will occur in closed rooms and is therefore hardly visible. It is cheap. | It is very concentrated. The leaderships of the party main actors are the main targets. | It is likely to be dispersed. | All targets are individual main actors. The process will therefore be dispersed in the extreme and highly visible. It is expensive. |
Are the lobbyists likely to form permanent coalitions with political parties? | At least they are able to do so. | At least they are able to do so. | Perhaps | No |
Are the lobbyists likely to achieve changes in status quo, or can they just, at most, hope to defend the status quo? | They may very well achieve changes in status quo. | They may very well achieve changes in status quo. | They may, to a large extent, be restricted to defending status quo. | Defending the status quo may very well be their main activity. |
Will the lobbying organizations form before, or after, favorable decisions? | To a large extent before. | To a large extent before | Both patterns are possible. | To a large extent after the decisions. |
What will the main actor get in return for yielding? | Votes | Votes and/or money. | Votes and/or money. | Money |
Is lobbying likely to be a highly rewarding enterprise for the lobbyist? | Yes | Perhaps | Perhaps | No |